Alexey Vatutin vs Mathys Erhard Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In the last 6 months, Vatutin has a slight edge over Erhard in second serve points won, with 44.76% compared to 41.58%.
• Erhard outperforms Vatutin in return games, securing 51.38% of points on opponents' second serves versus Vatutin's 47.16%.
• Regarding first serve returns, Vatutin leads with 31.74%, whereas Erhard secures 29.71%.
• Could the ability to save breakpoints determine the outcome? Erhard has saved 53.22%, whereas Vatutin has saved 50.14% of breakpoints faced.
• Over the past year, Erhard boasts a superior match win rate of 66.67% compared to Vatutin's 61.33%.
• Erhard thrives on clay with a career win rate of 65%, while Vatutin excels on hard courts with a 60% win rate. Could surface preference impact this match?
• In the last year, at Challengers/ITF tournaments over $10K, Vatutin has a higher win rate than Erhard, 57.41% compared to 51.43%.
• Vatutin has a direct H2H advantage, having won their only meeting in straight sets.
• Erhard has faced tougher opponents on average, with an opponent rank of 355.64 compared to Vatutin's 397.35.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, Vatutin may have the upper hand with a 64% win rate in such scenarios compared to Erhard's 55%.
• In breakpoint conversion, Erhard has a slight advantage, converting 35.98% versus Vatutin's 32.76%.

Editorial Prediction (August 30, 2025, UTC):

Evaluating the upcoming match between Erhard and Vatutin, the statistics reveal a compelling narrative. Vatutin displays a marginal advantage in second serve points, suggesting stronger service games. However, Erhard counters with superior return performance, especially on second serves, indicating possible pressures on Vatutin’s service games.

Their past encounter favors Vatutin, as he claimed victory in straight sets without being pushed to a deciding set. Nevertheless, Erhard’s better overall win rate and experience against higher-ranked opponents could level the playing field.

Surface preferences further complicate predictions. While Erhard excels on clay, it remains to be seen whether the surface will influence the match. Given Vatutin's historical win over Erhard, the confidence from past victory might play a pivotal role.

Considering all factors, including breakpoint conversion rates and match dynamics, Alexey Vatutin appears to be the more likely winner for the upcoming match.